Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Katerina Siniakova vs Dayana Yastremska
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8494984e24358d95e929238616c3c9629035f4b2131e9c328d87c50f5f6503a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siniakovaof Siniakova, Yastremska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Yastremska | 34c | 6,900$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Siniakova | 68c | 2,737$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.15 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Yastremska | 34c | 2,197$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.14 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yastremska | 46c | 1,371$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Yastremska | 45c | 1,266$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.55 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yastremska | 11c | 1,213$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Yastremska | 14c | 1,044$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Yastremska | 8c | 1,018$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Yastremska | 37c | 815.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Siniakova | 8c | 586.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.41 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yastremska | 21c | 547.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 291 | 52.6%153 W · 138 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Siniakova | 46c | 481.63$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.63 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yastremska | 16c | 479.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Siniakova | 44c | 453.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Siniakova | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Siniakova | 74c | 443.89$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yastremska | 12c | 410.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Yastremska | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Siniakova | 42c | 354.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.51 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yastremska | 15c | 333.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 287 | 26.8%77 W · 210 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yastremska | 54c | 331.63$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Siniakova | 48c | 314.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Yastremska | 57c | 261.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Siniakova | 47c | 214.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…1102backed Yastremska | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Siniakova | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…ee68backed Siniakova | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…58dabacked Siniakova | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…60aebacked Yastremska | 57c | 199.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Siniakova | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yastremska | 55c | 189.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yastremska | 51c | 170.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…e543backed Yastremska | 13c | 150.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Siniakova | 8c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yastremska | 17c | 133.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…776abacked Yastremska | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yastremska | 12c | 115.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yastremska | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yastremska | 19c | 91.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Siniakova | 58c | 85.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…7d04backed Siniakova | 75c | 78.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Yastremska | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…b807backed Yastremska | 49c | 59.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…ec6bbacked Yastremska | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yastremska | 60c | 39.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Siniakova | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Siniakova | 40c | 26.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Siniakova | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Yastremska | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.