Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849ccce6cae9765ca4f315d1c5f0cc0b634e733620437e2ec8750112bb821c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Fritz | 23c | 7,535$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.04 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 5,924$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Fritz | 1c | 2,130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Alcaraz | 79c | 1,326$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.46 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Alcaraz | 78c | 1,283$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.26 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fritz | 20c | 1,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Fritz | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fritz | 24c | 970.2$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Alcaraz | 75c | 843.56$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.89 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Alcaraz | 77c | 840.19$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.24 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Alcaraz | 77c | 701.3$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Alcaraz | 79c | 632.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Fritz | 25c | 630$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Fritz | 22c | 613$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fritz | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Fritz | 22c | 549.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Fritz | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fritz | 21c | 432.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Fritz | 25c | 403.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Fritz | 25c | 399.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Fritz | 25c | 380.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Alcaraz | 79c | 380.47$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Alcaraz | 77c | 306.6$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Fritz | 11c | 251$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fritz | 18c | 227.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Alcaraz | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Alcaraz | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fritz | 10c | 153.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Fritz | 22c | 145.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…bb33backed Alcaraz | 77c | 135.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 124.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Fritz | 24c | 116.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…e7d9backed Fritz | 26c | 113.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Fritz | 22c | 109.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Alcaraz | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fritz | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Alcaraz | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Fritz | 21c | 84.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Fritz | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…946cbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 65.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…aa35backed Alcaraz | 77c | 64.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Alcaraz | 80c | 52.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Fritz | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…994fbacked Alcaraz | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Alcaraz | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…c192backed Alcaraz | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…5058backed Alcaraz | 75c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…cc0dbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Alcaraz | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Alcaraz | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Alcaraz | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Alcaraz | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.