Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on December 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a4951c92183390754e1edba7e3b39fa7ddabe6e5d0d185b909836506a2a646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6479…99e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,546$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…5a3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +450%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 44c | 869.22$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.75 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 26c | 390.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…8533backed Yes | 63c | 344$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked No | 66c | 340$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 201.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 196.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb3…108ebacked Yes | 38c | 191.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…ba2ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 47c | 150.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 137.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 45c | 128.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 122.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 41c | 111.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 55c | 109.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 101.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 72c | 99.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 89.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 23c | 80.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…9523backed Yes | 27c | 66.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 65.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 32c | 64.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 32c | 57.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 35c | 54.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 59c | 37.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef5…4a71backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on December 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on December 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on December 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.