MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ac2dcba54f7abdba314ca04702f21843785ca3e680ad408eabd8a30d055911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 1,783$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.56 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 794.24$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 691$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.69 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 637.17$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 520$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 437.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 415.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 361.25$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 233.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 213$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 195$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 162.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 155.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 147.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Atlanta Braves | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 90.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 87.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 78.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.