MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb293300e963e3d0b1bc466cb0bcdab48c50ef7cb49aaf59ced3cc4b8e8374114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 2c | 16,508$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 66c | 10,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 9,896$3,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,385.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 49c | 6,404$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.04 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 50c | 4,128$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.98 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 2,577$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.71 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,231$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 863$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 445.12$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 381.88$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 300.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 46c | 212.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 37c | 208$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 195.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 181.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 80.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Under | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…7289backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Over | 49c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.