South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84eb2d68cce4127ae879ec4aea512901b18152b7d63795732a55aab7c716d36a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,851 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 37c | 1,177$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.94 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 360.88$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Yes | 50c | 346.18$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed No | 11c | 296.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2514backed No | 50c | 223.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473b…7d10backed No | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…6755backed Yes | 51c | 168.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d1…ffc9backed No | 49c | 159$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…5b9fbacked Yes | 51c | 150.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…18fabacked Yes | 51c | 136.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed No | 75c | 132.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…ccbbbacked No | 49c | 128$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed No | 50c | 122.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…7eb3backed Yes | 51c | 121.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…0dd5backed No | 49c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed No | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…ce0abacked Yes | 52c | 88.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Yes | 28c | 61.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…d64abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 52c | 33.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785c…facabacked Yes | 51c | 32.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…b08abacked No | 51c | 31.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed No | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87af…ab00backed Yes | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac78…4371backed No | 51c | 25.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 49c | 24.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed Yes | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Yes | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.