South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7251b72449b33426968c60b634c1663028bb3a55212c3e28b275287317b157ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Botafogo FRof SE Palmeiras, Botafogo FR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,462 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Botafogo FR | 49c | 8,925$4,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,567.95 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed SE Palmeiras | 52c | 7,777$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.8 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Botafogo FR | 50c | 676.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.7 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed SE Palmeiras | 53c | 566.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed SE Palmeiras | 48c | 453.06$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.43 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked SE Palmeiras | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed SE Palmeiras | 39c | 197.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked SE Palmeiras | 52c | 188.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed SE Palmeiras | 68c | 147.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Botafogo FR | 48c | 130.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Botafogo FR | 15c | 128$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…cbc7backed SE Palmeiras | 39c | 100.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked SE Palmeiras | 50c | 92.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked SE Palmeiras | 57c | 91.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked SE Palmeiras | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed SE Palmeiras | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Botafogo FR | 47c | 76.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked SE Palmeiras | 39c | 71.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Botafogo FR | 39c | 64.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed SE Palmeiras | 55c | 61.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed SE Palmeiras | 74c | 60.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Botafogo FR | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SE Palmeiras | 37c | 57.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Botafogo FR | 65c | 51.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Botafogo FR | 50c | 45.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed SE Palmeiras | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed SE Palmeiras | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Botafogo FR | 63c | 39.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed SE Palmeiras | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed SE Palmeiras | 39c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed SE Palmeiras | 36c | 35.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed SE Palmeiras | 53c | 27.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Botafogo FR | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…d507backed Botafogo FR | 51c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Botafogo FR | 64c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.