South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ccf35fa5de7d1159eb42e5f6cd22b9c45951f8bae3a1fcdb8528d9df84a9482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 47c | 17,941$8,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,432.09 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 3,876$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.37 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 2,200$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 1,662$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.14 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 428.07$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 417.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 47c | 349.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 192.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 16c | 175.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over | 73c | 164.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd531…f32bbacked Under | 47c | 161.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed Over | 55c | 156.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 147$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 54c | 118.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 114.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 48c | 103.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 56c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Over | 53c | 93.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 56c | 87.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 74c | 82.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 80.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 53c | 63.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 53c | 62.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 31c | 57.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…e0f5backed Over | 54c | 48.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 76c | 41.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 73c | 38.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…b9abbacked Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 32c | 35.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed Under | 43c | 35.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 66c | 35.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 51c | 31.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…8ae5backed Over | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.