South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e11f942c902f565ed48deaae7a16d775876420613c4458903ccd9f1f377181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,965 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 51c | 1,945$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 59c | 1,816$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.98 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,151$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.43 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 36c | 361.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 69c | 261.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 33c | 260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 257.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 14c | 241.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 37c | 237.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 27c | 197.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 172.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Under | 66c | 167.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 146.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 140.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 8c | 125.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Under | 62c | 120.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…5ff6backed Over | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 66c | 84.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 83.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 39c | 78.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 31c | 67.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 68c | 55.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…14d9backed Over | 72c | 55.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 68c | 55.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 27c | 51.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 73c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed Under | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.