South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd925a81c2a0e9764447a51c7bed75ff93137005d42b0e89a37329ab5f2f9f983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,055 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 1,413$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 13c | 1,250$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 77c | 226.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 23c | 206.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 24c | 172$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 23c | 131.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 88.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Under | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 76c | 43.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.