Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ed6665d1510a31389904408b75471dad1bbaeca1783b067110899a21375356
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 6c | 810.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 527.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 436 | 38.1%166 W · 270 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 243.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 205.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 163.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 118.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 30c | 117.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 114.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 27c | 100.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 72c | 80.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 69.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 70c | 69.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 64.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 73c | 60.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 73c | 57.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 45.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 42.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 67c | 35.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…780ebacked No | 77c | 34.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 33.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…a2dfbacked No | 77c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…299ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 71c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.