Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b80dc655577b3792366602d3cfe4aaf00b930a7bb4f16a79a9fd8b0bad2964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 806.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 12c | 601.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 549.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 75c | 494.4$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 48c | 451.49$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.65 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 5c | 433.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 7c | 228.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 9c | 193.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 158.81$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 146.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 136.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 124.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 29c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 27c | 106.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 23c | 106.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…86acbacked Yes | 22c | 100.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 19c | 99.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 18c | 92.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 91.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed No | 77c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 83.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 80.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 76.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 75.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 72.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 71.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 67.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 26c | 67.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 51c | 59.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 58.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 57.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 45.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 44.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 25c | 41.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 40.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 69c | 38.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 32.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 31.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.