Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c91e121987cacb3e9350552272466fc72c169dd79176896112ddf69ed1e9918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 618.84$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.84 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 494.99$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 73c | 489.56$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 20c | 487.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 428.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 21c | 346.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.67 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 15c | 320.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.26 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 267.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 254.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 169.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 68c | 152.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 79c | 114.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 111.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 107$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 97.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 96.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 17c | 92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed Yes | 78c | 90.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 13c | 84.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 37c | 81.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 80.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 79.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 75.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 43c | 74.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 68.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 66.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 76c | 64.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 63.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 60.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 44c | 59.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 56.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 56.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 54.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 50c | 48.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 47.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 62c | 46.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 45.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 26c | 43.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 42.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 40.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…86acbacked Yes | 46c | 38.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 34.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 30c | 34.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed Yes | 80c | 29.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 46c | 29.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…ce3dbacked Yes | 70c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 72c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.