Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b08491c552c594177ca5333fbc9f192600d6d9324c6df12e747f9dc5d119cd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 906.3$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 359.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 313.94$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 271.2$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 49c | 257.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 193.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 161.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 148.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 64c | 138.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 128.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 73c | 123.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 115.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 111.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 98.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 90.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 26c | 78.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 27c | 70.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 68.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 36c | 66.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 65.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 23c | 61.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 57.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 47.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 42.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 42.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…0d22backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 39.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 38.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 35.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 51c | 33.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 33.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 68c | 32.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 31.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 29.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 28.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 26.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 65c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…3c07backed No | 74c | 13.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.