Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f2523e65595f785e79cf33e4b489efd13aafb23fa75132956f1ba8346119f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 652.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 356.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…6b6dbacked Yes | 35c | 283.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 277.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 249.62$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 190.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 24c | 187.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 129.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 12c | 129.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 129.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 124.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 103.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 17c | 101.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 82.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 79.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 68.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 67.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 59.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 56.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 29c | 51.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 50.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 41.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 35.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 35.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 30.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 79c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.