Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c9a2d97a177e6a7bf27cfa24f412b2ecda474ac9e03d54f075b6d4ae06eea14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 19c | 407.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 75c | 268.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 255.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 249.62$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 28c | 221.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 25c | 214.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 196.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 184.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 182.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 181.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 178.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 177.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.07 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 175.12$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 160.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 65c | 147.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 142.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…6b6dbacked No | 73c | 137.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 133$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 129.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 113.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 26c | 103.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 95.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 20c | 80.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 79c | 75.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 72.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 68.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 75c | 66.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 65.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 62.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 61.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 61.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 60.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 73c | 58.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 29c | 57.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 56.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 26c | 53.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 75c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 50.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…a31bbacked No | 73c | 50.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 68c | 50.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 45.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 44.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 73c | 42.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 39.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 38.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 37.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 56c | 35.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 76c | 31.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 27.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 27.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 23.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 52c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 77c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 76c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.