Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbc73769fe4284a6b8602c6b456c537e7be1f10ad1ee380e3482d7920ac35088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 543.13$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 65c | 467.12$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 451.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 18c | 448.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 402.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 4c | 320.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 285.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 36c | 279.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 249.62$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 226$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 30c | 218.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 207.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 25c | 198.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 191.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…f169backed Yes | 15c | 167$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 36c | 163.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 160.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 151.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed No | 80c | 145.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 129.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 25c | 129.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 15c | 119.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 26c | 113.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 64c | 78.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 70c | 77.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 27c | 74.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 68.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 22c | 58.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 50.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 47.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 44.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 42.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 26c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 36c | 41.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…acaebacked Yes | 39c | 41.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…3679backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 30.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 44c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf947…016bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 16.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.