Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c100de3ce9cc4b8e742437c3fb726761b27ae9a4c6fb1b0a4e7f8c509d2eb24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 19c | 1,093$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…6b6dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 725.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 546.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 244.85$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 220.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 20c | 209.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 22c | 206.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 22c | 192.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 188.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 17c | 173.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 18c | 170.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 28c | 168$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 150.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 136.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 116.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 113.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 15c | 112.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 20c | 104.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 99.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 17c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 16c | 83.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 20c | 80.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 77.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 69.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 26c | 68.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 56.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 71c | 55.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 46c | 54.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 52.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 24c | 52.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 49.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 34c | 48.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 39c | 48.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 35c | 44.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 42.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 41.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 37.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 36.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 30.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 43c | 28.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 72c | 24.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 76c | 17.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.