MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850f66bc067355eb14eacadcb9e4a75e97e25e966f1038bc1666c58dee2095b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 56c | 3,540$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 60c | 2,243$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 2,142$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.91 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 44c | 1,975$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.74 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 1,523$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 598$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.9 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 78c | 333$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Over | 41c | 308.67$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 297.47$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 271.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 204.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 201.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 42c | 189.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 62c | 166.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 118.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 43c | 94.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 43c | 63.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 37c | 63.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 44c | 51.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 56c | 42.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 45c | 40.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 42c | 27.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 45c | 27.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.