MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd73e20987aa952c4738f8bfd49c55b90f106694252f1219753fc72f68b86743a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 12,553$5,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,454.45 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 57c | 9,741$5,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.56 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 5,789$3,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.21 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 4,152$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.81 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 3,244$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.22 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 1,903$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 47c | 1,263$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,007$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.19 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 53c | 780.63$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 44c | 597.41$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.97 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 52c | 508.38$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.92 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 461.07$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 52c | 418.63$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 48c | 401.53$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.73 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 324.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 268.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…f16abacked Over | 52c | 250.57$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe064…a186backed Under | 48c | 242.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 196.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 177.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…78ebbacked Over | 55c | 175.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 147.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 72c | 142.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 45c | 124.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 44c | 101.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Over | 55c | 95.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Over | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 82.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 29c | 75.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 28c | 72.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 44c | 70.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 26c | 54.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 35c | 50.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Over | 51c | 35.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 72c | 33.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 45c | 32.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Over | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84c…efd5backed Under | 45c | 27.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Over | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.