MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa227d3145033991a97b2b61d72141ba2bbb6f545af44d6369705cdae23e77e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 1,391$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.41 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 976.19$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 650.66$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.4 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Boston Red Sox | 78c | 266.41$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 221.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 174.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 138.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 130.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 117.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…24a0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 72.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 68.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 60.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 49.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 39.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 39.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 33.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 24.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 22.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.