Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85120e97f63e535efe879e988f1b402650ff52181d37122cbd74412f60a8dc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 6,998$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,555$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,338$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,880$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 584.16$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 545$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 345$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 15c | 214$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 174$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 161.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 160.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 159.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 141.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 112.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 66c | 74.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed No | 77c | 73.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…3462backed Yes | 50c | 62.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 62.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 59.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 54.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 52.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 45.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 45c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…b4e6backed Yes | 33c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 51c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 26.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.