Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce8eee95b0a51147a328f18cdca1bdc954685dfaf95135c5d91199ca8a91da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 0c | 7,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 12c | 4,379$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.54 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 2,449$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,170$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.47 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,780$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 654$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 600.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 592.62$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 585.92$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 44c | 585.77$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.84 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 471.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 421.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 406.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 16c | 373.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 292.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 286.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 284$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 279.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 29c | 237.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 22c | 197.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 14c | 183.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 157.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 47c | 157.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 30c | 132.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 125.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 119.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 46c | 110.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 77c | 97.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 20c | 80.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 71.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 71.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 71.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 56.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 36c | 56.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 32c | 55.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 24c | 41.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 33c | 36.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 66c | 36.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…d0a7backed No | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked Yes | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 72c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.