Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcead6271ac7acaf3aa182ad5cdc0ebd4743eedccdfeae58f40766edf81c9c44c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 7,381$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,730$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 923.3$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 198.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 79c | 111.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 63.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 45.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 72c | 44.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 69c | 43.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 42.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 41.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 40.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 68c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.