Fifa International · resolved market
Uruguay to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85308ec167faa9a0429500f48da9b5a8ddf027062cd3da8480780bb836341bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e6…e1c2backed Yes | 60c | 5,500$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 40c | 5,382$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.79 | 142 | 34.5%49 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 55c | 479.32$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.35 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 48c | 335.88$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 20c | 294.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 278.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 272.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6656…6ac4backed Yes | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 45c | 227.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked No | 45c | 226.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Yes | 38c | 176.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 44c | 141.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Yes | 51c | 123.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…d021backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked Yes | 64c | 43.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 47c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 33.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…9364backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 25.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…d8d1backed Yes | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Uruguay to win the second half?this page
- Saudi Arabia to win the second half?No won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.