Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856b0c7774086a767911a2d986565879fbe8a89f872895d1305b05de5578c8e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 1,315$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.07 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 422.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 229.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 220.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 203.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 200.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 197.15$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 13c | 192.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 165.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 17c | 165.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 133.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 13c | 130.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 116.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 97.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 16c | 88.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 18c | 69.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 65.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 55.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 50.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 40.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…266cbacked No | 75c | 22.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.