Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc14ceaa63cee492eb1d32af671215afe4bee45e6af8972dffcff55b2b0131ea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 998.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 385.17$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 229.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 229.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 74c | 210.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 188.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 172$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 12c | 166.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 159.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 149.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 135.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…327cbacked No | 74c | 123.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 14c | 122.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 38c | 116.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 116.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 13c | 110.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 65c | 101.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 96.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 20c | 93.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 92.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 91.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 22c | 90.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 87.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 74.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 33c | 73.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 72c | 70.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 67.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 61.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 24c | 56.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 19c | 53.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 67c | 50.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 46.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 38.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 31c | 35.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 35.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…d76ebacked No | 79c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 72c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked No | 76c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 80c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…bb96backed No | 76c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…4e16backed No | 73c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.