Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30586b257a245753f46eac56775bd126e8be00f770e00bb179970621454f1370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 51c | 1,003$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.1 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 635.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 27c | 478.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 315.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 243.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 229.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 220.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 207.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 199.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 199.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 198.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 180.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 172$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 162.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 56c | 152.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 13c | 149.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 143.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 137.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 133.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 10c | 122.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 61c | 118.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 113.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 41c | 109.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 104.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…6b9fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 93.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 92.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 90.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 78c | 88.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 30c | 79.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked Yes | 56c | 76.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked No | 22c | 72.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 65.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 61.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 57.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 56.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 52.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 52.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…4c27backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757e…8128backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 46.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 53c | 45.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 63c | 44.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked Yes | 42c | 43.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 40c | 42.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 42.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 38.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 34.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 42c | 32.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…88dabacked No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 49c | 31.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 51c | 30.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 64c | 29.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 65c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 26.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 44c | 24.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 43c | 24.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 50c | 20.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 65c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 19.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed Yes | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 67c | 15.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.