Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857840b7e1130aa522914ee7f03e9e171f4d144cd5c984f4882607948d75bd19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 4,550$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.71 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 1,422$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.17 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 56c | 916.52$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.27 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 56c | 861.25$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.95 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed No | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 370.95$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 275$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked No | 56c | 151.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 59c | 95.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 95.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 45c | 90.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 44c | 51.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 56c | 37.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake leading at halftime?this page
- Minnesota United FC leading at halftime?No won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.