Premier League · resolved market
Fulham vs. Manchester City: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a45e9a7f8831fe29c175b2c78f0556619c9b5b4456c4f70673311c4c2b0f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 36c | 7,949$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,048.51 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Under | 63c | 4,240$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.64 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 62c | 3,330$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.12 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 533.2$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 35c | 220.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…6198backed Under | 66c | 180$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 38c | 151$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 62c | 98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 57c | 79.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…28bcbacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…e93cbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Under | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 63c | 43.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 30.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 36c | 28.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa171…23e3backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…252abacked Under | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fulham vs. Manchester City: O/U 3.5this page
- Fulham vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fulham vs. Manchester City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)Fulham won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.