Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b2eb6af68c70442b3658c7957f49735cec78be52b47281b29e15394612c467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 11c | 675.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 576.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 13c | 512.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 8c | 332.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 278.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 12c | 277.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 266.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 363 | 22.9%83 W · 280 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 248.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 235$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 232.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 208.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…37ccbacked Yes | 17c | 198.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 10c | 194.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 25.5%40 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 12c | 159.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 21c | 152.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 359 | 18.9%68 W · 291 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 142.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 135.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 131.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 124.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…70acbacked Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 19c | 105.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 105.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 19c | 104.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 15c | 99.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 23c | 83.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 29c | 67.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 17c | 67.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 60.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 24c | 48.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 25c | 47.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…4b9ebacked Yes | 28c | 46.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 45.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 78c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…9a9fbacked No | 79c | 17.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 79c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 467 | 67.5%315 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +333.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.