TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No10c1,251$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.021,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No13c670.65$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.143,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No73c504.27$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.6812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c459.4$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38adbacked Yes29c343.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No30c317.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No33c265.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.062,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c229.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.723,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes34c217.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.632,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes71c211.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.932951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No79c208.41$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c200$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c198.2$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.962,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes80c197.88$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.751,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes33c171.66$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes31c169.34$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.79850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c153.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5313755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c152$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.85,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes25c150$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.177237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes77c148.7$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes34c146.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.816724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c142.62$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.654,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c141.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes32c140.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.143,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe9…37ccbacked Yes45c132.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes19c131.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c126.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c123.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.319,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No70c121.29$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c115.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes18c113.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7733232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes31c108.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5416934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes25c108.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4420025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed No64c102.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4819252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes42c102.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.343,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes28c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No24c97.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed Yes22c90.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.622948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Yes58c90.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.127047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…e084backed No67c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.252065%13 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c69.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes16c68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No73c66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1850373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c65.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.191,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes22c65.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7315923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes23c64.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.141450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes25c60.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.855644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes25c60.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.45633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4214635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No23c59.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7829751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked No78c57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.521560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c54.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.785,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes25c50.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9717831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes21c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3934633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3621132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes33c49.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.372437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes31c49.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3415534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c49.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.292,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No22c49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes28c48.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.124731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes33c48.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5220445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0988028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…71a1backed No39c41.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7284…b0f2backed Yes30c40.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0911242%47 W · 65 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x109e…9a31backed No67c39.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.793844.7%17 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes29c39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.698531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes37c38.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes80c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5811446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No29c36.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.933234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes39c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3535429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No72c34.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes35c34.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.358134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.134,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b11…0b41backed Yes48c32.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes33c32.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.598947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No68c31.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2316045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…72c0backed No56c29.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.887749.4%38 W · 39 L-10.8wins-0.14per pick63cpaid-25.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x74c9…5915backed Yes63c28.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.39955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No76c27.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.763557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8236…bfbabacked No38c26.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No67c25.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c24.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8785…5d00backed Yes57c24.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c23.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…7e67backed No69c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick60cpaid-78.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68e4…a14ebacked Yes59c21.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.