Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b78af53846a8b6827855994549e60291da6e376012d41b201835b3d332c749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 279.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 22c | 257.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 12c | 248.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 214.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 185.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 129.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 77c | 128$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 122.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 119.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 118.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 117.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 108.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 108.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 106.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 88.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 82.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 78.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 76.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 67.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 66.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 64.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 63.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 60.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 46.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 42.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 39.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 38.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 39c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 28.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.