Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c1df0feabdb5c6e1f2a3ed1bbb85d17ef94a0757550569c799d1a82f037530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 2,351$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75db…2098backed No | 57c | 946$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 45c | 558.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…6bc8backed Yes | 43c | 466$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 31c | 350.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 34c | 285$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 63c | 270.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 16c | 266.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…5884backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 46c | 236.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…101dbacked Yes | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 59c | 222.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked Yes | 74c | 189.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 53c | 139.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…ed5cbacked No | 57c | 109$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 101.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…e892backed Yes | 35c | 99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 47c | 95.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 49c | 90.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 39c | 79.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…eed8backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…207abacked No | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…c59dbacked Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…1e40backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…1f66backed Yes | 64c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 51c | 49.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc6…95f3backed Yes | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 32c | 42.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd648…eeb5backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…3b45backed Yes | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b2…019ebacked Yes | 65c | 40.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…5e58backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…1737backed Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd98…20d6backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9d…2bffbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa9…8637backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc077…ca40backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes | 50c | 26.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…4024backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1307backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…2596backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.