Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e38a484a117d2169de6a7505f3760bde825d1e6917349b3ee36ca04b6f277be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,070$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.58 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 62c | 460.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 56c | 414.89$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…ebefbacked No | 44c | 335.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 30c | 263.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 43c | 246.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 245.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 57c | 210.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 47c | 180$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 68c | 177$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 45c | 176.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 147.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…a7c1backed Yes | 55c | 146.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 52c | 128.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…f45bbacked No | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 75c | 104.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 80c | 94.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 80.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 80.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed No | 67c | 79.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 58c | 69.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 53.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked No | 31c | 48.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c3…986fbacked Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a21…cb1abacked Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…2039backed No | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…3e71backed Yes | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…6926backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…4f08backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bc…c45bbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090e…66ffbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 65c | 27.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…6c75backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…5163backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…24a0backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 64c | 25.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…1a8abacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655f…04c0backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbff…293fbacked No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed No | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…4406backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…9f0dbacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.