Tennis · resolved market
Osaka vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85da99b1b00ab163bc9f5a6139aac6ef6a2760927270442614283ee662a9753d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 54c | 5,563$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.7 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 46c | 3,738$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.48 | 1,163 | 41.5%483 W · 680 L | +26.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,518 | 37.7%573 W · 945 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 465.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.64 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 55c | 455.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.03 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 203.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 46c | 58.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…08f0backed Over | 55c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…9406backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Osaka vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)Muchova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.