Tennis · resolved market
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x803b80c0286ff4bd1f624750c110c10776d0907dcc6c2d3dba8d6045ef5bc256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 795.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 610.86$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.78 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 473.91$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 220.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 211.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 37.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…9406backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Osaka vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)Muchova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.