Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb57bd27a92d16140d3c788e558be156de5ea11dc31e86bd89a8f600c73582028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Osaka, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Muchova | 63c | 4,776$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.82 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Osaka | 40c | 3,147$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.17 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Osaka | 47c | 2,721$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.53 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Muchova | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.07 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Muchova | 50c | 1,000$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.76 | 407 | 48.9%199 W · 208 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova | 50c | 926.9$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.75 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Osaka | 54c | 899.41$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.43 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Osaka | 49c | 895.56$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.83 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 53c | 808.38$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.28 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Muchova | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Muchova | 47c | 744.68$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Osaka | 51c | 602.97$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Muchova | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Muchova | 53c | 388.29$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Muchova | 44c | 350.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.28 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Osaka | 41c | 261$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked Muchova | 48c | 206.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa213…6907backed Muchova | 50c | 203.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Muchova | 35c | 199.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Muchova | 54c | 186.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Osaka | 49c | 185$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Osaka | 72c | 165$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Osaka | 56c | 163$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Osaka | 56c | 161.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…a216backed Osaka | 50c | 150.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Osaka | 54c | 137.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Muchova | 50c | 111$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Osaka | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Muchova | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…8506backed Muchova | 59c | 85.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Muchova | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Osaka | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Osaka | 57c | 61.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Muchova | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Osaka | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Osaka | 54c | 49.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Muchova | 51c | 48.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Osaka | 44c | 47.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Osaka | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Osaka | 28c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Osaka | 37c | 30.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Osaka | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Osaka | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Muchovathis page
- Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Osaka vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)Muchova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.