Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9625986ec6d9b4531d3b1533b3d492bdc3289e218f03a44185ca5eb0129eb8b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Osaka, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Osaka | 31c | 4,245$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.89 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Muchova | 69c | 3,500$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.75 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Osaka | 32c | 2,271$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.72 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Muchova | 69c | 1,454$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.8 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Muchova | 68c | 1,109$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Osaka | 33c | 999.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Muchova | 67c | 999$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.67 | 385 | 50.4%194 W · 191 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed Osaka | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…83a0backed Muchova | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Osaka | 36c | 714.85$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.35 | 340 | 47.4%161 W · 179 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 64c | 667.44$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.57 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Muchova | 67c | 575.34$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.97 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Muchova | 53c | 502.13$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.98 | 465 | 51.2%238 W · 227 L | -23.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Osaka | 35c | 322.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Osaka | 33c | 319.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Osaka | 32c | 261.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Muchova | 68c | 247.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Osaka | 33c | 207$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Osaka | 46c | 191.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…9905backed Muchova | 64c | 181.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Osaka | 32c | 106.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Osaka | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Osaka | 47c | 97.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Muchova | 67c | 74.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Muchova | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Muchova | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Muchova | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Muchova | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…eb31backed Muchova | 68c | 73.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Osaka | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Osaka | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Muchova | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova | 67c | 49.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…4575backed Muchova | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Muchova | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Muchova | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…2ffbbacked Muchova | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Muchova | 64c | 38.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Osaka | 35c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Osaka | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Muchova | 65c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Muchova | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Muchova | 63c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)this page
- Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Osaka vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.