Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f20de3ec7ece6a74f9a63480e01ffbad0880ff32fa9cbe12867e0c83816b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 544.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eb8abacked Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed No | 59c | 485$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +355.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…dc43backed No | 47c | 295$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 255.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…6111backed No | 45c | 245$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 28cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed Yes | 40c | 235$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…3c82backed No | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…1bffbacked Yes | 40c | 220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked No | 63c | 210$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…9560backed Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 189.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…1c4ebacked No | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…2842backed No | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed Yes | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked Yes | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…af56backed No | 45c | 155$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…8796backed Yes | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…7156backed No | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…0e3bbacked No | 38c | 155$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked Yes | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 152.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked No | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…e45fbacked Yes | 34c | 152$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 41c | 135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…4e27backed Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…e3f2backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…af32backed No | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d5…ccc7backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e10…965fbacked Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…4490backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…8b14backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 57c | 98.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked No | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…94f5backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed No | 63c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 80c | 80.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da0…da0ebacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…e78ebacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…2dfebacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…7939backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…34e1backed Yes | 63c | 79.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…6614backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 61c | 72.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…8e44backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…3142backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…1adcbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 37c | 64.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ce94backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…9b3fbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…1994backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…892bbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…b206backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…6437backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…8ff6backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…72f3backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a459backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…8189backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…1c99backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…e625backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8ff1backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…9a55backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed Yes | 44c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…2dc1backed Yes | 41c | 34.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…77e0backed Yes | 39c | 33.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…47e9backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…ecb6backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…7f7cbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…3caabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…6cecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…9acdbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…90f7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…9082backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…be4abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.