F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86136a829f7d27b78bad0b0ef2f56e0b71cb412a9c3dd6f9021076a0a3c7c93f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 21c | 1,928$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 80c | 800$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 380.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.43 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 352.03$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 79c | 268$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 21c | 217.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 42c | 213.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 151.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed No | 37c | 129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 48c | 99.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 90.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 88.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed Yes | 47c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…f5eebacked Yes | 19c | 62.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +417.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 76c | 59.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…12b9backed Yes | 37c | 54.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…0700backed No | 32c | 53.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 52c | 27.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.