CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86855bccbf396a141e1408261e2cb4167de220bfc29d415602965b4c7c04b9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnny Speedsof Alliance, Johnny Speeds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Johnny Speeds | 58c | 992.8$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.72 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Johnny Speeds | 55c | 928.52$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.86 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Alliance | 36c | 751$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.95 | 134 | 36.6%49 W · 85 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Johnny Speeds | 52c | 509.27$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.35 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Alliance | 26c | 465.61$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Alliance | 38c | 429.03$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.84 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d1…4242backed Alliance | 48c | 427.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed Alliance | 66c | 263.94$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f5…1a48backed Alliance | 33c | 235.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Johnny Speeds | 53c | 221.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 298 | 31.5%94 W · 204 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Alliance | 63c | 203.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Johnny Speeds | 65c | 175.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…3bbebacked Alliance | 64c | 157.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 52.1%200 W · 184 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…cac5backed Alliance | 58c | 154.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alliance | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Johnny Speeds | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed Johnny Speeds | 50c | 110.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Alliance | 10c | 109.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Johnny Speeds | 61c | 97.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Alliance | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…b88fbacked Johnny Speeds | 34c | 88.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Johnny Speeds | 56c | 72.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Johnny Speeds | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…b0e0backed Johnny Speeds | 40c | 71.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Johnny Speeds | 71c | 70.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 153 | 73.2%112 W · 41 L | +18.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Johnny Speeds | 55c | 62.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Alliance | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 230 | 57%131 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alliance | 36c | 55.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Johnny Speeds | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…fb37backed Alliance | 33c | 52.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…ad3fbacked Johnny Speeds | 36c | 37.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Johnny Speeds | 65c | 33.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…4d4abacked Johnny Speeds | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…a53ebacked Alliance | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Johnny Speeds | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +20.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…1931backed Johnny Speeds | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Johnny Speeds | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Johnny Speeds | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…8c52backed Johnny Speeds | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Alliance | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Journey PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.