MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b860967336d33b457f4aa9fc0bd964d52054c6a4c2185c48a170b8d0494c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 477.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 374.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 271.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 264.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 80c | 250$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 225.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 170.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 146.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 85.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 82.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 79.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 51.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 44.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.