MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4cf171034af6e9c015451e5679d3ff822ecc3caa95e7bedf36e7d3ed276a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 50c | 11,260$5,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,575.65 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 57c | 4,302$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 3,132$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 2,641$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 2,140$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,979$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 804.56$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 719.14$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.57 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 311.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 306.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 292$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 247.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 192.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 48c | 189.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 189.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 189.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 51c | 188.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 50c | 125.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 16c | 94.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 90.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 65c | 78.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 52c | 70.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 58.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 42.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 50c | 25.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 63c | 22.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…cb46backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Over | 51c | 19.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.