MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d11fc99646aa2da67b3551f47eab260baf235a8167b2610101187f2e6d98b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 44c | 20,000$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,150.33 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 12,871$7,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,206.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 10,834$5,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,251.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 63c | 6,300$3,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,981.58 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Over | 60c | 5,495$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 4,645$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 1,647$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 40c | 1,375$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 1,110$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 687.62$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.93 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 542.9$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 58c | 507.53$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.37 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 41c | 493.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 418.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 49c | 378.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 227.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 221.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 205.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 165.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 133.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 58c | 128.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 45c | 120.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 54c | 101$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 61c | 97.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed Over | 61c | 82.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…6f6abacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 28c | 68.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 48c | 59.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 44.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 43.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 43c | 27.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.