MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c66681b4f81caa689bd214f0b514d5985ccc454ce6cb9a0b19cefe4e068d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 1,273$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 1,249$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 1,055$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…72febacked Under | 80c | 616.26$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 570.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 64c | 516.63$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 362.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 34c | 162.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 58c | 136.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 101.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 39c | 86.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 66c | 79.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 34c | 50.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Under | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Under | 78c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.