MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c3b2a0b68d8d56a4bac6834a8fb0c9dbe695a1231334e5cc1d6817681c6c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 2,543$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.05 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 2,506$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.14 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 1,932$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 1,875$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,350$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 605.07$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.09 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 595.97$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 588$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.68 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 495.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 489.81$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.68 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 465.28$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 467 | 49.5%231 W · 236 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 389$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.41 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 8c | 285$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 188.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 108.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 104.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 91.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 77.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 72.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f25…4f11backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 47.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275d…6b0cbacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 26.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.