TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$505,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$559,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Over51c340,907$173,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,862.5623948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Under49c80,000$39,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,80031149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under49c61,186$29,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,204.9332152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Under49c60,804$29,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,010.0411849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under49c55,555$27,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,333.051,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c37,412$19,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,379.5411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c25,136$12,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,070.744,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Under49c23,734$11,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,104.3411656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over52c16,791$8,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,731.341,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under48c16,731$8,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,623.13,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over46c11,000$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,06059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under49c10,808$5,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,512.0892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over52c10,500$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,46044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Over52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00023846.6%111 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under48c9,089$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.471,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Under58c6,027$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.5651756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under49c6,000$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0901,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0722…7e7fbacked Over52c5,385$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over51c5,140$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.6539047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over52c4,198$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.831,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c3,764$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.564,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under49c3,609$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.5233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under48c3,473$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,805.934942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under49c3,148$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.5611256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c2,893$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.25,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under49c2,782$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.712,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed Under60c2,442$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.532744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under50c2,327$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.544,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked Under50c1,916$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.941741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Over59c1,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004647.8%22 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0f…b9d0backed Over67c1,677$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.110239.2%40 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under48c1,667$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.841,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c1,608$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.061,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Over46c1,024$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.0428453.9%153 W · 131 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7d…26c4backed Under49c868.5$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.943253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under54c809.09$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.983,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over31c745.82$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.028,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over52c680$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.67259.7%43 W · 29 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under49c650$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.61,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under48c604.58$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.1156851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under48c585.55$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.618,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c548.34$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under49c535.15$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9328154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Under49c525.27$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.2943560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under43c510$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.39,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Over52c432.69$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22512848.4%62 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Over52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010046%46 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over44c318.06$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.26,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15047545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Over52c276.54$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.85433.3%18 W · 36 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over47c251.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.111,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over41c240.85$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6930340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under48c240$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.21,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Over54c224.07$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217342.5%31 W · 42 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under49c220.05$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2389053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…5672backed Over52c211.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104540%18 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Over52c209$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.682045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fe…8726backed Over52c202.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Over55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…accbbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007037.1%26 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under79c180$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.081,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Over52c155$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.626747.9%128 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ca…2d82backed Over52c150.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.034445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over52c149.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Over47c148.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9532450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under49c144.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6529255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Over28c139.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.88125.9%21 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under48c138.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.152,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815b…a1c7backed Over52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706240.3%25 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over50c131.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8850748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under77c129.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9732166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a1…10dcbacked Over52c123$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9621851.4%112 W · 106 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under79c122.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.928,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over26c115.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1639948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under50c102.56$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2857747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under45c97.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.793,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2b…e5e7backed Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9a…9903backed Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Over52c95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x738e…dc37backed Under51c94.53$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.538949.4%44 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under52c93.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.011,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6f8backed Over52c87.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Over51c85.39$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over43c81.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.361,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked Over47c81.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5118444.6%82 W · 102 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.