TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,744 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Over56c6,162$3,451 inWon+$2,711.5251756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Under56c3,490$1,954 inLost-$1,954.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over44c2,389$1,051 inWon+$1,337.9410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under41c2,350$972 inLost-$971.728,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c2,080$913 inLost-$912.8512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Under38c335.16$127 inLost-$127.366354%34 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7736…6f6abacked Over69c289.86$200 inWon+$89.864841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under30c245.1$74 inLost-$73.848,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under36c236.51$85 inLost-$84.855,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over61c191.6$117 inWon+$74.868,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under45c181.61$81 inLost-$81.461,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under41c180.51$73 inLost-$73.223,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over70c174.23$121 inWon+$53.0211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under29c172.41$50 inLost-$5010239.2%40 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under44c105$46 inLost-$46.21,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over54c71.11$38 inWon+$32.711,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under28c64.61$18 inLost-$17.849,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Over79c50$40 inWon+$10.415942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Over68c44.44$30 inWon+$14.4430963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under50c39.53$20 inLost-$19.864226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over72c34.72$25 inWon+$9.7226853.7%144 W · 124 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x738e…dc37backed Under44c28.63$13 inLost-$12.558949.4%44 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over46c25.65$12 inWon+$13.8569447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over55c19.1$11 inWon+$8.5830340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc38…bb0ebacked Over64c16.23$10 inWon+$5.849341.9%39 W · 54 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.