Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c85b880e5f960292fdac0652178e99288e1cd841e5f20f860dcff5259da7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 912.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 863.23$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 825.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…2d29backed Under | 76c | 787.56$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…43dbbacked Over | 24c | 787.56$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 12c | 706.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 21c | 699.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 503.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 12c | 385.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 23c | 360.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 78c | 345.19$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 23c | 267.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 19c | 252.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…99fabacked Over | 25c | 226$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…5f51backed Under | 75c | 226$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 79c | 155.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 78c | 154.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Over | 19c | 96.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 60.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 79c | 45.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 79c | 45.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 79c | 45.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 79c | 43.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 78c | 32.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d65…c693backed Under | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Under | 79c | 24.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…9f69backed Under | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 80c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 79c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 75c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.